Facebook Friend Wheel... pointless but pretty

I'm finding my way around Facebook these days -- lots of familiar faces. And, at least in some of the groups, colleagues are discussing topics they used to discuss on their blogs... so it's almost essential to be there.

And there's some fun stuff.... via Roo Reynolds comes word of the Facebook Friend Wheel. A pointless but pretty map of your friends and their relationships. Here's mine!

    Technorati : facebook, friend wheel

Posted by Allan Jenkins at 05:00pm in Gadgets & Toys, Smart Communities | Permalink | Comments Welcome! (0)

The 2004 Tsunami; what other "nobodies" accomplished

Fellow nobody Lee Hopkins, on his Better Communication Results blog, wrote yesterday about "How to create a global project management tool in 72 hours."

He was writing about the International Association of Nobodies, of course, but let me share the tale of another Web 2.0 meme-storm.

(Raganites and other Web 2.0 skeptics, you might want to sit up and listen.)

Within hours of the Southeast Asian earthquake and tsunami, three bloggers started Skyping, wondering what they could do to help. They turned to social media -- a Blogger blog, a wiki, Skype, and IM (all of it free, or nearly so). Within three days they had attracted 100,000 visits and 50 volunteer bloggers, wiki specialists, networkers. Within eight days, their SEA-EAT Blog & Wiki had attracted over 1 million visits, and 200 volunteers -- all unpaid, with no "organization chart" or "director" or "fundraising staff". They just did it.

Dina Mehta's early posting on the topic (5 days after the event), her later personal account and this Information Week article are well worth a read, if you would like to know more.

I first heard this story from Dina herself at last year's Reboot conference, and blogged about it in "We don't have the tools is OUT as an excuse." And I still believe that (and Web 2.0 skeptics should wake up to this): if three Bombay bloggers who had never met each other can form a distributed 200-volunteer charity information network in eight days... think what rich companies and associations can do.

Technorati Tags: nobody, International Association of Nobodies, SEA-EAT blog, Dina Mehta, Web 2.0

Posted by Allan Jenkins at 05:14pm in International Association of Nobodies, Reboot 7.0, Smart Communities, Social Tools, Tsunami | Permalink | Comments Welcome! (2)

Finally, a guaranteed no-lose investment!

Looking for a sure-fire investment? No gearing, instant pay-off and -- and here's the thing -- you can get in on the groundfloor for nothing.

Note: if you are not a professional communicator, this offer is not for you. Sorry.

Interested?

Well, if you can handle it, wander over to Forward, "the online springboard for new and upcoming PR professionals."

Founded by Erin Caldwell, a senior in the Auburn University program that Robert French helps lead, Forward looks a the practical part of getting and staying in your first PR job.

To quote the site:

Here you'll find:

• commentary and advice from students, faculty and professionals from around the world from varying levels and areas of PR
• information to help you find PR experience and how to make the most of it
• the opportunity to learn about trends and tools that they don't teach you in college
• helpful interviews with professionals
• a comprehensive list of suggested reading material including blogs, books and professional publications

Now, what about that investment? Well, if you are professional communicator, and are willing to blog and write and advise the young people coming into our profession... you can become an investor... a writer... an adviser.

And that's not a bad investment, is it?

Posted by Allan Jenkins at 11:13pm in Education, Public Relations, Smart Communities | Permalink | Comments Welcome! (2)

A democracy of groups: a tremendous article by Beth Simone Noveck

First Monday is one of the few peer-reviewed journals on the Internet, and is, as far as I know, the only one devoted entirely to the Internet.  It was originally Danish, so I started reading it from Issue One, in May 1996, the articles of which were:

Electronic Cash and Monetary Policy by Mark Bernkopf

The Social Life of Documents by John Seely Brown and Paul Duguid - introduction by Esther Dyson

Networked-centered is an oxymoron by Rishab Ghosh

Law and Borders - The rise of law in Cyberspace by David R. Johnson and David Post

Corporate Metamorphosis: The Effects of the New Media by Sean Murphy

Yep, in the first warm days of 1996, First Monday writers were looking at topics and ideas that, nine years later, are often just barely creeping into MSM.

The November 2006 issue includes an article I want to recommend to Desirable Roasted Coffee readers. It's A Democracy of Groups, by Beth Simone Noveck at the New York Law School (she's the blogger at The Cairns Blog). It's about 40 pages long, and it's not written in the snappy style of Business 2.0. But it's a excellent examination of one reason why social media is compelling and essential. Here's the abstract:

In groups people can accomplish what they cannot do alone. Now new visual and social technologies are making it possible for people to make decisions and solve complex problems collectively. These technologies are enabling groups not only to create community but also to wield power and create rules to govern their own affairs.

Electronic democracy theorists have either focused on the individual and the state, disregarding the collaborative nature of public life, or they remain wedded to outdated and unrealistic conceptions of deliberation. This article makes two central claims.

First, technology will enable more effective forms of collective action. This is particularly so of the emerging tools for "collective visualization" which will profoundly reshape the ability of people to make decisions, own and dispose of assets, organize, protest, deliberate, dissent and resolve disputes together.

From this argument derives a second, normative claim. We should explore ways to structure the law to defer political and legal decision–making downward to decentralized group–based decision–making. This argument about groups expands upon previous theories of law that recognize a center of power independent of central government: namely, the corporation.

If we take seriously the potential impact of technology on collective action, we ought to think about what it means to give groups body as well as soul — to "incorporate" them. This paper rejects the anti–group arguments of Sunstein, Posner and Netanel and argues for the potential to realize legitimate self–governance at a "lower" and more democratic level. The law has a central role to play in empowering active citizens to take part in this new form of democracy.

I have only read the first few pages, and have no choice but to print the whole thing out and read it this weekend. So far, excellent.

Posted by Allan Jenkins at 10:07pm in Civil Liberty, Communication, Ethics, Law, Smart Communities, Social Tools, Writing I Enjoy | Permalink | Comments Welcome! (0) | TrackBack (0)

Recovery 2.0 Fiddles While Kashmir Burns: "We Don't Have the Tools" is OUT as an Excuse (Reprise)

Friend Neville Hobson urges us to Help Victims of Pakistan Earthquake. With a death toll climbing north of 20,000, the October 2005 Kashmir Earthquake knocks the entire Atlantic Hurricane season into the corner.

After the earthquake & tsunami last year, the SEA-EAT blog/wiki project -- an entirely grassroots effort --  organized and swung into action within hours. After hearing Dina Mehta describe the effort at Reboot, I wrote about it, saying "We Don't Have the Tools is NOT an Excuse".

Just as they did in the wake of Hurricane Katrina (my post here), many of the same team spontaneously assembled behind the South Asia Quake Help effort within hours of the quake:  ("News and information about resources, aid, donations and volunteer efforts after the South Asia Earthquake of October 8th, 2005.")

And are doing an outstanding job. You can volunteer, by the way.

These three efforts in nine months point, unfortunately, to the sluggishness and bureaucracy already clogging the arteries of Jeff Jarvis' Recovery 2.0 effort, which is aimed at doing what the SEA-EAT team already does far better.  After weeks of talking about it, Jarvis managed to convene a meeting to talk about the project. The results of this meeting?

* We need to work on standards and APIs for the tools and data bases people create to help in disasters. The peoplefinder standard is already underway and some of the folks from Yahoo at the meeting — who had experience on the ground in Houston and also at the Red Cross network operations center — are working on improvements. At a minimum, we need to do a better job harnessing the internet to help people find each other.

* We need to meet face-to-face with government, NGOs, and business to offer help and coordinate. There is a meeting in Washington on Oct. 17 about just that.

In the meantime, the Kashmir was being leveled by an earthquake, and the South Asia Quake Help team organized itself and got to work. No meetings, no discussions of software options, no meetings in Washington.

Jeff Jarvis: You have great influence; the members of your group have great influence. Instead of reinventing the wheel, why not use your influence to push funds and volunteers into the group behind SEA-EAT, Katrina Help, and South Asia Quake Help? The money your group has spent on travel alone -- just on the BART -- could fund any of these efforts.

How about it?

Technorati tags: Recovery 2.0Recovery2.0 pakistan+earthquake

Posted by Allan Jenkins at 10:52am in Citizen Journalism, Current Affairs, Katrina, Online Media, Pakistan Earthquake, Smart Communities, Society, Tsunami | Permalink | Comments Welcome! (5) | TrackBack (2)

Google Adopts Prediction Markets

First published, in slightly different form, at the MarComBlog of Auburn University.

Last week, I wrote some about prediction markets. These are markets where hundreds, even thousands, of participants, each armed with "some" knowledge, pool their thinking to make better predictions than pollsters, better decisions than "experts".

(Note: Wikipedia's Prediction Market article is a good starting place if you want to learn more, as is James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds (search inside at Amazon).)

But what applications do prediction markets have for business and PR practitioners? The evidence is thin to date, but last week, Google announced it's using prediction markets to make better internal decisions:

At Google, we're constantly trying to find new ways to organize the world's information, including information relevant to our business. Building on the ideas of Friedrich Hayek and the Iowa Electronic Markets, a few Googlers (Doug Banks, Patri Friedman, Ilya Kirnos, Piaw Na and me, with some help from Hal Varian), set up a predictive market system inside the company.

The markets were designed to forecast product launch dates, new office openings, and many other things of strategic importance to Google. So far, more than a thousand Googlers have bid on 146 events in 43 different subject areas (no payment is required to play).

We designed the market so that the price of an event should, in theory, reflect a consensus probability that the event will occur. To determine accuracy of the market, we looked at the connection between prices of events and the frequency with which they actually occurred. If prices are correct, events priced at 10 cents should occur about 10 percent of the time. (Read more)

Google claims the prediction market is working: prices quickly reflect what's likely, and entropy declines significantly over time. Just as you would expect in a functioning market.

The next step (and Google doesn't say if they have or will take it) is to use prediction markets to make better management decisions. To do so would be a significant departure from management doctrine, which is that -- no matter how "flat" your organization -- most important decisions are made by the CEO/COO/CFO. But if markets, no matter how much the participants are laypeople, make better predictions than experts, then that's the logical next step.

Looking back on my own tenure as CEO of a 125-person agency, and as Finance Director of a 13,000 member association, I am pretty sure the "market" -- had we had them -- would have made some different decisions than I and my management colleagues made.

What's this mean for PR practitioners? Probably little, now, since prediction markets are only now slipping in to management's minds. But if I were doing PR for Microsoft's MSN Virtual  Earth, I would be concerned about this graph, for example. Taken from the Yahoo Research Buzz Game, a prediction market, it shows how poorly the "buzz" around MSN Virtual Earth (red dots, bottom graph) has been compared to GoogleEarth (blue dots). And how the "market" views the two properties (top graph). (Note, the green lines denote NASA's product).

I've had only a few clients where a prediction market could have been deployed effectively (it takes a fairly good-sized pool, I believe), but I've no doubt the market would have made some of our marketing decisions easier and faster.

Posted by Allan Jenkins at 09:53pm in Advertising, Communication, Corporate Management, Economics, Prediction Markets, Public Relations, Smart Communities, Social Tools, Society, Technology | Permalink | Comments Welcome! (0) | TrackBack (0)

Trying Out the Wisdom of Crowds

"Summer Reading" is usually more of a wish than an accomplishment. But I managed a lot this summer; indeed my June Amazon shipment is wholly depleted.

I like to read two or three related books in tandem, for the joy of serendiptity. That doesn't always work, but in July it did, and in a odd corner: how crowds, individuals, and society collaborate and "know".

The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes businesses, economies, societies and nations. James Surowiecki. Short take: a collection of people with ordinary knowledge will generally make better decisions than any expert.

The Company of Strangers: A natural history of economic life. Paul Seabright. Short take: Most primates are only minimally social. Man figured out reciprocal trust, which allows anonymous transactions.

Blink. Malcolm Gladwell. Short take: if you know (about) what you are seeing, your first instinct is is the right one. If you stop to analyze, you may well go wrong.

I won't give longer reviews; all three have been reviewed to death, by better critics.

A common theme:  Surowiecki and Seabright both support the idea that "financial" markets, composed of independent  "traders"  are better predictors of future results than TV pundits.

One of the markets they cite is NewsFutures, where a punter can "bet" on outcomes of current events: Will Schroeder stay on as German Chancellor? Will a hurricane hit Texas before November 30? Will John Roberts be confirmed?

The thinking is that players, who have definite, though small, financial incentives to bet correctly, will, as a group, bet correctly. No individual will have the "answer". But the collective smarts of 20,000 individuals, with money or rewards at stake, should be a good guide.

As an example, let me show you where I am. I have a stake in NewsFutures. Here was my status a few hours ago:

As you can see, I'm backing Schroeder heavily to be re-elected Cerman chancellor. I'm spitting in the wind, obviously, but the Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish papers -- all of whom traditionally have very, very good sources in Berlin, are tipping a Schroeder government.

Right? Wrong? I don't know. The "market" seems to think I am wrong (but since I took this screen shot, the shares have jumped from X$9 to X$29... as the US papers start to pick up on the European analysis.)

I also have a stake in Yahoo's TechBuzz Game. Here, I am on less solid ground, since I am not privy to tech buzz. But I have spotted a hole: there's a hurricane market. Meteorology fascinates me; and weather that affects the South deeply concerns me.

So here I've confidently invested in Rita and Stan (who doesn't exist, yet).

Rita is going to be all over the papers for a week or more. Stan will or won't develop. Still, I won't lose much by giving him a wager.

Now, if you've stayed with me this far, you may be thinking one of two things:

What are the moral implications of "betting" on hurricane strikes (or whatever)? None, that I can see. I don't cause a hurricane strike; indeed, if it looks like the hurricane will die out, I'll take the other position.  I've flipped on the Schroeder thing twice. I lost my butt on Phillippe.

Takeaway: the market is heartless & makes better decisions when it is heartless.

But you aren't affecting anything. Nope, just reacting with great interest.

Takeaway: the "market", given its incentives, is a better news gatherer than any professional news gatherer.

I have a lot of links to fill in here, and will do so over the next day. In the meantime, a Google Search will probably get you where you are going

Posted by Allan Jenkins at 07:56pm in Books, Communication, Desirable Roasted Coffee, Ethics, Gadgets & Toys, Smart Communities, Social Tools, Society | Permalink | Comments Welcome! (0) | TrackBack (1)

Where am I? Where is my Community?

Via Smart Mobs comes news of Earthcomber, a mapping application for PDAs. One neat part of the application is that it lets members of public or private communities enter locations and comments on a map overlay. So a group of birdwatchers, for example, could quickly create an online map of good spotting spots and update it in realtime.

Or a city tourism department could provide business travelers with a map of wi-fi hotspots...and users could comment on conditions...

Or Student Unions could provide new freshmen with relevant online maps of campus....and student communities could modify.....

Or designers could map the retailers in Lower Manhattan selling their clothes...and users could note price differences, other wares, and friendliness of staff....

Or microbrewers could map the pubs selling their ales...and brew-lovers could rate pub ambience, food, and fun factor....

Only available in the US so far, and only a dozen or so communities are set up.

Posted by Allan Jenkins at 05:07am in Gadgets & Toys, Smart Communities | Permalink | Comments Welcome! (0) | TrackBack (1)